Nicolas Sarkozy .... 29.6% Ségolène Royal ..... 25.1%
Bayrou came in under 20% and Le Pen at about 11%. The May 6 run-off election will feature Royal & Sarkozy.
In 1981, Valéry Giscard-d'Estaing outpolled François Mitterrand in the first round, but Mitterrand went on to win the election. Nothing is decided at this point.
If the turnout is as high on May 6 as it was today, the most interesting factor now will be who Bayrou's voters decide to support. If they go for Sarkozy, he wins. If they go for Royal, she wins. Of course, they will surely split, some going toward the left, others toward the right.