tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post7904092734679741054..comments2024-03-28T15:15:32.175+01:00Comments on Living the life in Saint-Aignan: Hollande's in the lead, but...Ken Broadhursthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04430899802705818716noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-23646887316782132302012-04-24T09:52:59.201+02:002012-04-24T09:52:59.201+02:00@Ken
No, I am no conspiracy lunatic (e.g., when t...@Ken<br /><br />No, I am no conspiracy lunatic (e.g., when the average French thinks 911 was an internal job, I do not). I just think they've got the statistical tools to correct the possible errors, they should have learned from the past. Either they are idiots, or they do it on purpose. Now, I may be wrong. But always having the same pattern again and again is kind of frustrating, and I wonder how can one be surprized.<br />Alone the "bon sens" should tell you, that reasons why Le Pen gets so many votes aren't gone, quite the contrary in fact. Given that, her "dédiabolisation" job and her improved access to medias, why should she have scored less than her party did before?<br /><br />Polls were wrong, and it is no surprise (watching that from abroad, I wondered why the communist Mélenchon should surge that much). That is what I meant. Now, if you think the pollsters in France do their job in a completely unbiased way, I think you are being naive (no offense meant). I of course cannot generalize from http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Giacometti , but does that make all the people mentioned conspiracy theorists? <br /><br />Thanks for reading.Jannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-28012460325100015462012-04-23T21:32:24.940+02:002012-04-23T21:32:24.940+02:00Well, with a few exceptions...Well, with a few exceptions...Ken Broadhursthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04430899802705818716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-52861571509612278842012-04-23T19:58:08.770+02:002012-04-23T19:58:08.770+02:00Be careful, because nobody got a majority anywhere...Be careful, because nobody got a majority anywhere. We're talking about pluralities — the highest vote count, but less than 50% — everywhere for every candidate.Ken Broadhursthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04430899802705818716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-23243887109226005092012-04-23T18:07:32.762+02:002012-04-23T18:07:32.762+02:00Luck may have been the wrong word choice.
ESL, a v...Luck may have been the wrong word choice.<br />ESL, a valid, long standing excuse....H.Peterhttp://www.theceliachusband.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-39660963271574193522012-04-23T17:26:54.539+02:002012-04-23T17:26:54.539+02:00Bonjour Cousin
Vous avez raison ; a part le 16, o...Bonjour Cousin<br /><br />Vous avez raison ; a part le 16, on a le 15,7,6,1 et 8 qui ont voté en majorité pour NS ( Nicholas Sarkozy).<br /><br />Sorry I should have said "voted for NS" - my mistake.The Beavernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-23552745494976176882012-04-23T17:06:21.364+02:002012-04-23T17:06:21.364+02:00Bonjour Cousine,
You are perfectly right about le...Bonjour Cousine,<br /><br />You are perfectly right about le Gard.<br /><br />According to the map for Paris, it seems to me that in addition to the 16th arrondissement [Auteuil and Passy] two or four more [17, 15 and possibly 8, and 7] voted for Sarko.<br /><br />What do you mean by NS? The only thing I could come up with is Notre-Seigneur, but I don’t think it’s what you meant. LOL-MDRchmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-77370220238568405592012-04-23T16:48:09.909+02:002012-04-23T16:48:09.909+02:00Peter, we can't vote because we are residents ...Peter, we can't vote because we are residents but not citizens.Ken Broadhursthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04430899802705818716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-9530364385161368992012-04-23T16:47:36.271+02:002012-04-23T16:47:36.271+02:00Yes, le Gard (30) is the département where Le Pen ...Yes, le Gard (30) is the département where Le Pen won.<br /><br />So Jan, you are a conspiracy theorist. Great.<br /><br />H. Peter, you call that luck? What kind, bad?Ken Broadhursthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04430899802705818716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-16172979978084520612012-04-23T16:02:20.935+02:002012-04-23T16:02:20.935+02:00Andrew
The answer is "le Gard" {I belie...Andrew<br /><br />The answer is "le Gard" {I believe (30)} where Marine Le Pen won <br /><br />Ken<br /><br />The nappies (NAP -Neuilly, Auteuil and Passy) voted NS in the Paris area.The Beavernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-61106183265783440912012-04-23T15:36:03.989+02:002012-04-23T15:36:03.989+02:00I do not think there should be anything to worry c...I do not think there should be anything to worry concerning Le Pen. If you look at the 2002 situation, she did not do better than the "extreme" "right" at that time (her father and Bruno Mégret totalized 19,2% in the first round back then). In 2002, Chirac did not reach 20%, and Jospin did 16%. Sarkozy and Hollande did much better than that. Medias are only building up on the Le Pen case, because they do believe the polls they publish... BTW, I think people keeping their Le Pen vote secret only explains half the problem of the polls inaccuracy (you could correct that, statistically. Why don't they do it?). How could they be so wrong to bring up Mélenchon or Bayrou as a "third man"? I personally believe the pollsters do that intentionally.<br /><br />I belong to the 20% that did not vote, because I think none of the French politicians is up to the job. In the second round, we've now got two guys who think government control and socialism are going to solve France debt problem. Hard times are yet to come for France, but if Hollande gets elected, we won't have to wait that long.Jannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-8105372714719205342012-04-23T15:00:21.076+02:002012-04-23T15:00:21.076+02:0080% is amazing! Now you will have a short wait for...80% is amazing! Now you will have a short wait for the rest of the story unlike the US which has months to see what will happen.Evelynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17824964122794535252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-63516240605196122792012-04-23T13:16:33.784+02:002012-04-23T13:16:33.784+02:00Thank you for a great analysis.Thank you for a great analysis.Sheilanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-14878019337589663742012-04-23T13:00:26.970+02:002012-04-23T13:00:26.970+02:0080% turnout is fantastic!80% turnout is fantastic!Seine Judeet (Judith)https://www.blogger.com/profile/07407353544376132484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-48543710572878638862012-04-23T12:46:58.528+02:002012-04-23T12:46:58.528+02:00I could look it up and probably will, but which de...I could look it up and probably will, but which department did Le Pen receive a majority in? More importantly, what was the major factor?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-87415833001141189712012-04-23T10:09:52.787+02:002012-04-23T10:09:52.787+02:00All of Europe's right wingers pander to the ma...All of Europe's right wingers pander to the masses by saying we go back to our own national currency, close up borders and go it alone.<br /><br />In times of a modern "Voelkerwanderung" from the east to "our" west that's to be expected.<br />Austria's far right, a close associate of Le Pen, has an almost identical platform. Polls show them at 25 to 28%. In Austria. A happy and content country!<br /><br />It's good as sound bites when running for office, but in the end, a breakup will not happen. <br /><br />Sarkozy, with a little luck and of course some hard core pandering, may get back in after all.H.Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07985020213976356036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18071407.post-42967688736496268432012-04-23T09:39:50.483+02:002012-04-23T09:39:50.483+02:00Do you and Ken have a right to vote too? You live ...Do you and Ken have a right to vote too? You live year long in Saint-Aignan anyway.Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00348111835477115112noreply@blogger.com